Ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe kwamafreyimu e-photovoltaic ePakistan

I. Isingeniso

Ngokusheshisa ukuguqulwa kwesakhiwo samandla omhlaba, amandla avuselelekayo, ikakhulukazi ukukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi we-solar photovoltaic, kuba ingxenye ebalulekile yamasu kazwelonke wamandla. I-Pakistan, njengezwe elisathuthuka eNingizimu ye-Asia elinesidingo samandla esikhula ngokushesha, ibhekene nezinselelo ezifana nokutholakala kukagesi okuqinile kanye nesakhiwo samandla esisodwa. Ukuthuthukisa imboni ye-photovoltaic sekuyindlela eyinhloko yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Amafreyimu e-Photovoltaic, njengezingxenye ezibalulekile zokusekela zesakhiwo samamojula we-photovoltaic, enza imisebenzi eminingi ehlanganisa ukuvikela amamojula, ukuqinisa amandla omshini, nokwenza lula ukufakwa. Isidingo sabo semakethe sikhula ngokuqhubekayo ngokukhula komthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic. Lesi sihloko sihlose ukuhlaziya ngokuhlelekile isimo semakethe, izici zokushayela, izinselele, namathemba esikhathi esizayo ozimele be-photovoltaic e-Pakistan.

II. Isimo Samanje Sokuthuthukiswa Kwemboni ye-Photovoltaic yasePakistan

1. Ukuhlinzekwa Kwamandla Okuvelele kanye Nokungalingani Kwezidingo

IPakistan sekunesikhathi eside ibhekene nokushoda kukagesi, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi sesidingo esikhulu sasehlobo, nokunqamuka kukagesi okusabalele. Nakuba izinhlelo zamuva nje zegesi, amalahle, namandla aphehlwa ngamanzi ziye zadambisa enye ingcindezi, izinkinga ezifana nezindleko ezinkulu zikagesi, ukuncika okuqinile kwamanye amazwe, kanye nokungaqini kahle kwegridi kusaqhubeka.

2. I-Superior Solar Resource Endowment

Izindawo eziningi zasePakistan zithola ngaphezu kwamahora angu-8 okukhanya kwelanga ngosuku ngokwesilinganiso, nesamba semisebe yonyaka engu-1,800–2,200 kWh/m², okukunikeza inzuzo engokwemvelo yokuthuthukisa ukukhiqizwa kwamandla e-photovoltaic, ikakhulukazi ezifundazweni zase-Punjab, Sindh, nase-Balochistan.

3. Ukuqinisa Kancane Kancane Ukusekelwa Kwenqubomgomo

Uhulumeni wasePakistan wethule izinqubomgomo ezimbalwa zokukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwe-photovoltaic, okuhlanganisa:

○ Inqubomgomo ye-Net metering, evumela abasebenzisi bezentengiselwano, bezimboni, nabahlala ezindaweni zokuhlala ukuthi badayisele ugesi owedlulele kugridi;

○ Ukwehliswa kwentela noma izilinganiso zentela ezikhethwayo zamamojula e-photovoltaic nezinto zokusebenza ezihlobene;

○ Ukukhuthaza amaphrojekthi amakhulu we-photovoltaic afana '10,000 MW Solar Initiative';

○ Ukukhuthaza ubambiswano lukahulumeni nezizimele (PPP) ukuheha utshalomali lwangaphandle ukuze kwakhiwe izimboni ezinkulu zikagesi ezibekwe phansi.

4. Ukukhula Okuqhubekayo Kwekhono Elifakiwe

Kusukela ngo-2025, amandla afakiwe e-photovoltaic asePakistan asedlule ama-gigawatts (GW) angu-2.5, namaphrojekthi we-photovoltaic (amaphrojekthi asophahleni) abalwa ngenani elikhulayo unyaka ngamunye, elisetshenziswa kakhulu emikhakheni yezohwebo nezimboni, ukunisela ngenkasa kwezolimo, kanye nokuphakelwa kukagesi ngaphandle kwegridi ezindaweni ezikude. III. Ukuhlaziywa Kwemakethe ye-Photovoltaic Frame

1. Usayizi Wemakethe kanye Nesakhiwo Sesidingo

○ Ngokusungulwa kwezimboni zendawo zokuhlanganisa imojuli ye-photovoltaic (njengase-Lahore, Karachi, nase-Islamabad), isidingo samafreyimu e-photovoltaic enziwe ngendawo sikhule ngokushesha.

○ Imakethe yamanje ibuswa amafreyimu e-aluminium alloy, ebalwa ngaphezu kuka-90% wesheya yemakethe, ngenxa yokungasindi kwawo, ukumelana nokugqwala, amandla aphezulu, kanye nokucutshungulwa kalula, okuhlangabezana nezimfuneko zabakhiqizi abaningi bamamojula.

○ Isidingo sivela kakhulu ezinhlotsheni ezintathu zamakhasimende:

■ Izitshalo zokuhlanganisa amamojula we-photovoltaic wendawo;

■ Osonkontileka be-EPC yemishini emikhulu kagesi;

■ Izihlanganisi zesistimu ye-photovoltaic esabalalisiwe.

2. Supply Landscape

○ Ukukhiqizwa kwasendaweni: Okwamanje, i-Pakistan inamandla athile okucubungula iphrofayela ye-aluminium alloy, futhi ezinye izinkampani seziqalile ukukhiqiza amafreyimu aqondene ne-photovoltaic, kodwa umthamo wokukhiqiza ukhawulelwe, futhi ubuchwepheshe be-anodizing obusezingeni eliphezulu abukavuthwa.

○ Ukuncika ekungeniseni: Ozimele bekhwalithi ephezulu basalandwa kakhulu besuka emazweni afana ne-China, i-UAE, ne-Turkey, ikakhulukazi kumaphrojekthi asezingeni eliphezulu adinga ukunemba okuphezulu nokumelana nesifutho sikasawoti, kuncike emikhiqizweni engenisiwe.

○ Izinga lentengo: Ozimele abakhiqizwe endaweni bashibhe ngo-10% -15% kunemikhiqizo engenisiwe, kodwa sisekhona isikhala sokuthuthukisa isikhathi sokulethwa nokuvumelana.

3. Amathrendi Ezobuchwepheshe

○ Idizayini engasindi: Ukunciphisa izindleko zokuhamba nezokufaka, amafreyimu anezindonga ezincane, ezinamandla aphezulu aphenduka ithrendi;

○ Ukuthuthukiswa kokumelana nokugqwala: Amaphrojekthi ezindaweni ezisogwini (njenge-Karachi) anezidingo eziphakeme zokumelana nokugqwala kwesifutho sikasawoti, ekhuthaza ukwenziwa kwaziwe kwezinqubo ze-anodizing + zokuvala;

○ Ukuhlolwa kwamathrendi angenafreyimu: Amanye amaphrojekthi wamamojula anezinhlangothi ezimbili ahlola imiklamo engenahlaka, kodwa lokhu akukakaba yinsakavukela.

IV. I-Market Driving Factors

1. Inqubomgomo kanye Nezinzuzo Zokutshalwa Kwezimali

Izinxephezelo zentela zikahulumeni zamaphrojekthi wamandla avuselelekayo, ukuxegiselwa kokufinyelela kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe, kanye nezinqubo zokuxhuma igridi ezilula kukhulise kakhulu ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali.

2. Amanani Akhuphuka Kagesi kanye Nokucindezela Kwezindleko Zamandla

Abasebenzisi bezentengiselwano nabezimboni babhekana namanani aphezulu kagesi, okubashukumisela ukuba bashintshele kumandla welanga ophahleni, ngaleyo ndlela kuqhuba isidingo samafreyimu neminye imikhiqizo esekelayo. 3. Iqhutshwa Imiklamo Yamandla ngaphansi kwe-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Kusetshenziswe amaphrojekthi amaningana e-photovoltaic ngaphansi kohlaka lwe-CPEC, njenge-Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, okwenza umphumela wokubonisa futhi uqhubekisele phambili ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kochungechunge lwezimboni.

4. Ukuthandwa kakhulu kwe-Distributed Photovoltaics

Ukukhuphuka kwamaphrojekthi amancane wezohwebo, izimboni, kanye nezolimo kuholele ekwenyukeni kwesidingo samafreyimu ajwayelekile kanye namamojula.

V. Izinselelo Zemakethe

1. Ikhono Lokukhiqiza Lendawo Elibuthakathaka

Ukunikezwa okungazinzile kwezinto zokusetshenziswa (njengama-ingots e-aluminium emsulwa) kanye nokunemba okubuyela emuva nobuchwepheshe bokwelapha obungaphezulu bukhawulela ukuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi yomkhiqizo.

2. Isistimu Ejwayelekile Engaphelele

Ukuntuleka kwezindinganiso ezihlangene zikazwelonke noma zezimboni zamafreyimu e-photovoltaic kuholela kukhwalithi yomkhiqizo engalingani emakethe.

3. Uxhaso Lwezezimali kanye Nokuthengwa Kwempahla

Amabhizinisi endawo abhekene nezindleko eziphakeme zezimali, futhi izinto zokusetshenziswa ezivela kwamanye amazwe zithintwa kakhulu ukushintsha kwezinga lokushintshisana; ukusebenza kahle kwe-logistics okuphansi kuthinta imijikelezo yokulethwa.

4. Ukuncintisana Kwamazwe Ngamazwe Okushubile

Izinkampani zefreyimu ye-Photovoltaic ezivela emazweni afana ne-China, ngezinzuzo zabo zesikali nokulawula izindleko, zifaka ingcindezi kubakhiqizi basekhaya.

VI. Amathemba Ekusasa Nezincomo

1. I-Market Outlook

○ Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2030, umthamo wonyaka omusha we-photovoltaic wase-Pakistan uzofinyelela ku-800MW–1GW, okuzohambisa isidingo sonyaka samafreyimu e-photovoltaic ukuthi sidlule amathani angu-150,000.

○ Ingxenye yokukhiqizwa kwendawo kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke ibe ngaphezu kuka-50%, okwenza uchungechunge lwezimboni lokuqala kusukela ekucutshungulweni kwephrofayela ye-aluminium kuya ekukhiqizweni kozimele.

2. Izincomo Zokuthuthukiswa

○ Kuhulumeni: Yakha izinqubomgomo zosekelo zokukhiqizwa kwendawo kwamamojula e-photovoltaic nezinto ezisizayo, sungula amazinga embonini, futhi ukhuthaze ukwakhiwa kwamapaki ezimboni;

○ Kubakhiqizi: Yethula okokusebenza okuthuthukisiwe kwe-extrusion kanye nokwelapha phezulu, uqinise ukubambisana nezikhungo zocwaningo, futhi uthuthukise ukungaguquguquki nokuhlala komkhiqizo;

○ Kubatshalizimali: Gxila ekutshalweni kwezimali emigqeni yokukhiqiza yozimele emaphakathi kuya kwephezulu futhi kusungulwe amaqoqo ezimboni eduze kwamafekthri amamojula amakhulu e-photovoltaic;

○ Kwabathekelisi: Izinkampani ezivela emazweni afana ne-China zingacabanga ukumisa izimboni e-Pakistan noma ukubambisana namabhizinisi endawo ukuze zigweme izithiyo zohwebo ezingaba khona.

VII. Isiphetho

Njengesisetshenziswa esibalulekile sochungechunge lwezimboni ze-photovoltaic, amafreyimu e-photovoltaic ePakistan okwamanje asesigabeni sokukhula kwesidingo esisheshayo kanye nezigaba zokuqala zokukhiqiza okwenziwe endaweni. Naphezu kokubhekana nezinselelo ezifana nobuchwepheshe, izinkinga ze-supply chain, kanye nokuncintisana kwamazwe ngamazwe, amandla emakethe makhulu, aqhutshwa ukuthambekela okubanzi kokushintsha kwamandla, ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo, kanye nesidingo semakethe. Esikhathini esizayo, ngokuqondiswa kwenqubomgomo, ukuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe, nokusebenzisana kwe-supply chain, i-Pakistan kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele kancane kancane ukuzethemba kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu kumafreyimu we-photovoltaic, ukuhlinzeka ngokusekela okuqinile kokuphepha kwamandla kazwelonke kanye nokuguqulwa kohlaza.