With multiple measures in place, the silicon material market is expected to bottom out and recover

From January to April 2025, the newly installed capacity of solar power generation reached 104.93GW, and the newly installed capacity in April alone was 45.22GW, which was basically the highest monthly level in the history of photovoltaic installation in the first half of the year. With the end of the "430" and "531" rush installation, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the photovoltaic industry chain have experienced fluctuations and are currently stabilizing. However, the polysilicon link has entered the price downward channel again in mid-April, which is already in a state of cash flow loss. The industry dilemma has deepened again, and companies are still actively taking countermeasures.

From the perspective of corporate production and operation strategies, some companies have chosen maintenance, and some companies have started capacity replacement. First of all, in May, the number of polysilicon production companies decreased from 13 to 11. For companies that have already stabilized low-load production, lowering the production load again will bring about problems such as product stability on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will increase production costs to a certain extent. Therefore, these companies tend to suspend production for maintenance, and some companies will also have new suspension and maintenance plans in the future. In addition, the leading enterprises are currently actively replacing production capacity, replacing large production lines that have been in production for a certain period of time with small production lines that are running relatively well, and have significantly reduced the expected output for the whole year by nearly 100,000 tons. Overall, the positive adjustment of the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises is conducive to the easing of the current supply and demand contradictions and the stability of future market expectations.

From the perspective of industry inventory quantity, as of the end of April 2025, my country's polysilicon inventory is about 390,000 tons. If the current downstream consumption situation is followed, it is expected to be enough for enterprises to carry out normal production for more than 3 months. If the subdivided monthly data is taken into account, polysilicon is basically in a state of supply and demand balance every month, that is, it can basically absorb the output of the month, but the consumption rate of existing inventory is relatively slow. According to public information from enterprises, the vast majority of enterprises still choose to absorb inventory through the spot market. A small number of enterprises have begun to try to supply to traders, and their willingness to participate in the delivery link of the futures market is relatively low. As Tongwei stated in the investor relations activity record released on May 21, in terms of inventory management, it is currently mainly digested normally through the spot market, and there is no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery link. Overall, since the rush to install has basically ended and the spot market demand is limited, it is expected that the future will be stable and the inventory will be gradually destocked in small quantities.

In order to cope with the extreme market conditions, the association is actively reflecting the pain points and difficulties faced by the industry to relevant government departments, and proposing specific measures and suggestions. In the future, with the active guidance at the national policy level and the effective cooperation of relevant enterprises, the polysilicon industry will gradually restore a stable and rational market order, and the market trend will be positive in the long run. Even if the price of polysilicon cannot recover in the short term, the price in the future market will gradually stabilize.